Thursday, May 7, 2020

"But the flu is just as deadly!"

This is the argument of so many right now who are pushing for the country to be open! I'm tired of seeing this from people who ignore science AND math! Here let me lay this out for you...

Flu Season

October 2019 thru April 2020 (time: 7 months...5 of which were NOT under lockdown)

Preliminary Estimates (note the estimate part, because that is not total tested, but estimates based on those tested...notice the WIDE range):

39,000,000 - 56,000,000 Illnesses
24,000 - 64,000 Deaths


COVID-19

February 2020 through early May 2020 (time: just over 3 months...2 of which were under lockdown)

As of the morning of May 7th (note that this is based on actual testing)

1,260,000 CONFIRMED Illnesses
74,581 Deaths

First of all...do the math! Even on the high end of the flu estimates, the rate of death (deaths divided by illness to get the percentage), is .1%. COVID-19, with current confirmed numbers from testing, is at 5.9%. I get it...it can be argued that there isn't enough testing, and as antibody numbers come in, it can be shown that many more people have actually been infected with the virus, and thus bring the death rate down. HOWEVER, that does not change the number of actual deaths versus the timespan of those deaths! The numbers alone show that COVID-19 is more deadly. Flu numbers are over 7 months, with 5 months of people doing whatever they wish...large gatherings at concerts, sporting events, etc. The COVID-19 has a timespan of about half that of the flu, MOST of that time spent in lockdown...where most businesses were closed, there were no concerts or other large gatherings, etc. More deaths in a shorter amount of time! I hate to see what those numbers are going to look like at the 7 month mark to better match up to the flu season!

I'm going to say this only once...and loudly for the people in the back...death rate is NOT calculated by number of deaths versus the entire population, which is what so many arguing to open the county have been doing in their claims that COVID-19 is no deadlier than the seasonal flu! It is deaths versus the number infected! Learn your math! Learn your science! Wear your dang masks and stay 6 ft away from others...or not, and when this illness hits close to home, MAYBE then you will finally get it!